"On Tuesday morning, Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper
called the U.S. findings 'a blow below the belt.'
An analysis in the competing Haaretz newspaper
suggested that Israel might come to be viewed
as a 'panic-stricken rabbit' and said that the U.S.
intelligence estimate established 'a new, dramatic reality:
The military option, American or Israeli,
is off the table, indefinitely.'"
________
By Dion Nissenbaum,
McClatchy Newspapers
Tue Dec 4, 1:29 PM ET
JERUSALEM — Israeli officials, who've been warning that Iran
would soon pose a nuclear threat to the world, reacted angrily
Tuesday to a new U.S. intelligence finding that Iran stopped
its nuclear weapons development program in 2003 and to date
hasn't resumed trying to produce nuclear weapons.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak directly challenged the new
assessment in an interview with Israel's Army Radio, and
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said the new finding wouldn't
deter Israel or the United States from pressing its campaign
to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapons capability.
"It seems Iran in 2003 halted for a certain period of time
its military nuclear program, but as far as we know,
it has probably since revived it," Barak said.
"Even after this report, the American stance will still focus
on preventing Iran from attaining nuclear capability," Olmert said.
"We will expend every effort along with our friends in the
U.S. to prevent the Iranians from developing nuclear weapons."
Probably no country felt more blindsided than Israel by the
announcement Monday that 16 U.S. intelligence agencies,
in a stunning reassessment, had concluded with "high confidence"
that Iran had halted its nuclear program in 2003 and with "moderate
confidence" that it hadn't restarted that program as of mid-2007.
For years, Israel has been at the forefront of international efforts
to isolate Iran , with Israeli intelligence estimates warning
that Iran was on the brink of a nuclear "point of no return,"
an ominous assessment that often fueled calls for a military strike.
sraeli officials also have sought to isolate Iran's president,
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad , citing his calls for Israel's destruction
and his skepticism that the Holocaust took place.
The U.S. intelligence finding said that evidence "suggests" that Iran
isn't as determined as U.S. officials thought to develop a nuclear
weapon and that a diplomatic approach that included economic
pressure and some nod to Iranian goals for regional influence
might persuade Iran to continue to suspend weapons development.
On Tuesday morning, Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper
called the U.S.findings "a blow below the belt." An analysis
in the competing Haaretz newspaper suggested that Israel
might come to be viewed as a "panic-stricken rabbit" and said
that the U.S. intelligence estimate established
"a new, dramatic reality: The military option,
American or Israeli, is off the table, indefinitely."
"This is definitely a blow to attempts to stop Iran from becoming
nuclear because now everybody will be relaxed and those
that were reluctant to go ahead with harsher sanctions
will now have a good excuse," said Efraim Inbar , the director of the
Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Israel's Bar-Ilan University .
The estimate created an awkward situation for Israeli leaders,
who mostly tried to sidestep direct criticism of the Bush admin
Olmert sought to focus on the report's finding that Iran had been
deterred in 2003 from pursuing its nuclear weapons program
by international pressure. That, said Olmert,
made continued sanctions essential.
Barak was tougher and promised that the report wouldn't influence
Israeli policy. "We cannot allow ourselves to rest just because of
an intelligence report from the other side of the earth,
even if it is from our greatest friend," he said. Israeli officials
also highlighted where the U.S. and Israeli assessments agree.
They noted that while the latest U.S. assessment said that
the earliest Iran was likely to develop enough weapons-grade
material for a nuclear bomb was 2010, Israeli assessments
weren't dramatically different, finding that Iran could develop
the workings for a nuclear bomb by 2009.
Gerald Steinberg , the chairman of the political science department
at Bar-Ilan University , suggested that the findings might increase
the chances that Israel will attack Iran because they reduce
the chances that the United States will act.
"I think it may introduce a lot of stress
in the Israeli-American relationship," he said.
But Emily Landau , the director of the Arms Control and
Regional Security Program at Tel Aviv University's Institute
for National Security Studies , said it would be very difficult for Israel
to launch an attack without explicit support from the United States .
"If Israel were to carry out a military action, it would have to be
in coordination with the United States , so if the United States
is moving away from that option, it would have implications
for Israel as well," she said.
( McClatchy special correspondent Cliff Churgin contributed
to this report from Jerusalem .) Check out the latest
from the Middle East at Checkpoint Jerusalem:
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Israel Feels Alone After Report on Iran
By STEVE WEIZMAN – 4 hours ago
JERUSALEM (AP) — A U.S. intelligence assessment that Iran
has stopped developing atomic weapons is putting a burden
on the Jewish state, which has long relied on Washington
to lead the international charge against Iran's nuclear ambitions.
With the U.S. now less likely to take military action,
an increasingly nervous Israel might feel compelled
to strike out on its own if it perceives a dangerous threat.
Israeli officials say their intelligence forces believe Iran
is still working aggressively to build nuclear arms.
The Islamic regime in Tehran is strongly opposed to
Israel's existence and frequently boasts of its ability
to strike the Jewish state with long-range missiles.
"The situation can become tense if they (the Israelis) decided
their red line has been crossed," said David Albright, a former
U.N. nuclear inspector who now heads the Washington-based
Institute for Science and International Security.
"They may force a military confrontation."
A summary made public Monday of the U.S. National Intelligence
Estimate on Iran concluded the Iranians suspended their attempt
to build a nuclear weapon four years ago, leading to increased calls
within the U.S. for a less confrontational approach to Tehran.
"This forces the Israelis to make a decision instead of being able
to take some comfort that the U.S. would take action at some point,"
said Wayne White, former deputy director of the
State Department's Middle East Intelligence Office.
"With Israel, you can be sure they will be unwilling to tolerate
as much risk as the U.S. ... because they can get hit," he said.
Israel sees Iran as its greatest threat and maintains that country
is aggressively pursuing a nuclear weapons program. It responded
to the report with a mixture of skepticism and veiled irritation.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak said that despite Washington's
assessment, his own intelligence analysis indicates Iran
is still trying to develop a nuclear weapon.
"We cannot allow ourselves to rest just because of an intelligence
report from the other side of the Earth,
even if it is from our greatest friend," Barak said.
Meeting with former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright
on Wednesday, Israeli President Shimon Peres said many
intelligence assessments around the world have later turned out
to have been inaccurate, a statement from his office said.
He did not refer specifically to the flawed 2002 U.S. intelligence
estimate of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program.
Iran's military said last month it had produced a new missile
with a range of 1,200 miles capable of reaching Israel
and U.S. bases across the Mideast.
Peres, who as Defense Ministry director general in the 1960s
spearheaded the development of Israel's own nuclear program,
told Albright that Iran's heavy investment in missiles
could only be intended to deliver a nuclear payload.
"There is absolutely no justification for developing such missiles
and equipping them with a conventional warhead," he said.
Israel has never confirmed or denied possessing nuclear weapons,
but it is widely believed to have a formidable atomic stockpile.
In 1981 Israeli warplanes penetrated deep into Iraq to destroy
an unfinished nuclear reactor near Baghdad to prevent its use
in a weapons program.
Israel has since taken delivery of about 80 aircraft fitted with
long-range fuel tanks that would allow them to reach Iran,
and it has acquired three German-built submarines reportedly capable
of firing nuclear-armed missiles, with two more under construction.
Israel says it prefers a diplomatic resolution to the Iran nuclear issue,
but has not ruled out taking military action itself if necessary.
Israel lives with the memory of the Nazi Holocaust and has vowed
never again to rely on anyone but itself to safeguard its people.
Iran funds Islamic groups like Hezbollah and Hamas,
both openly dedicated to Israel's destruction, and Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said Israel should be "wiped off the map."
The mood in the Israeli military command after this week's
U.S. assessment is one of isolation and disappointment,
but nobody is talking about any imminent Israeli strike against Iran,
defense officials said Wednesday. They spoke on condition of
anonymity because of the need not to appear at odds with U.S. policy.
Yossi Melman, veteran defense writer for the Israeli newspaper
Haaretz, said that if the U.S. view of Iran's nuclear status is correct,
it actually reduces the threat to Israel and the likelihood
of independent military action.
"If Iran is not heading for a nuclear weapon then you don't need
a military option," he said, adding that for Israeli officials
a strike was never a very likely choice.
"Israel's ability to carry out a military operation in Iran is limited,"
he said. "It's possible but limited."
Such a mission would be far more complex
that the 1981 Iraq raid, experts say.
It would require heavy precision-guided bombs that can slice
into underground bunkers, manned aircraft to bombard
multiple targets and possibly commandos on the ground
to make sure weapons materials are destroyed.
Melman said Israel's next step could be to redouble its own
intelligence efforts in an attempt to prove its case,
but that might antagonize the U.S. agencies.
"If Israel didn't have a smoking gun before, why should it find one now?"
he said. "If they had the evidence they would have given it
to the Americans and influenced their report."
=========
Associated Press writer Steve Weizman
has been reporting from the Middle East since 1985.
Associated Press writer Carley Petesch
contributed to this report from New York.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Please notice in this article how Iran, Egypt and al Qaeda
are lumped in one sentence...mmm...
Israel sees U.S. policy change behind NIE:
'Words do not stop missiles'
Wednesday December 5, 2007
Israel sees U.S. policy change behind NIE: '
Words do not stop missiles'
JERUSALEM — Israel has questioned the latest U.S. intelligence
assessment on Iran, with some senior officials raising the prospect
of a major policy change in the Bush administration.
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak did not rule out the prospect
that National Intelligence Estimate signaled an end to the
U.S. military option against Iran. But he said Israel must
continue to prepare for the prospect of a nuclear Iran.
"Yes, it might [mean the end of the U.S. military option]," Barak said.
"But it's not our job to worry about that. We have a lot to do regarding
Iran, but talking is not one of them. Words do not stop missiles."
Officials said the NIE, which asserted that Teheran ended
its nuclear weapons program in 2003, appeared to reflect an
administration decision to abandon a U.S. military option against Iran.
The officials said NIE reflected a paucity of U.S. intelligence
on Iran's nuclear program. "If on the issue of Iraq there was
overassessment [of intelligence], here there was underassessment,"
Yuval Steinitz, chairman of a Knesset subcommittee that oversees
the Israeli strategic dialogue with the United States, said.
In September 2007, Steinitz headed a Knesset delegation
to the United States to discuss such issues as Iran, Egypt
and Al Qaida with the administration and Congress.
The delegation met Vice President Richard Cheney and
exchanged assessments of Iran's nuclear weapons program.
"They never said Iran had stopped the nuclear weapons program,"
Steinitz recalled on Tuesday. "There were differences on when Iran
would reach nuclear weapons capability,
but not that it sought such capability."
Until NIE was released on Dec. 3, officials said, the U.S. intelligence
community maintained that Iran could assemble nuclear weapons
by 2011. Israel has concluded that Iran could build its first
nuclear weapons by late 2009.
Barak said the Israeli and U.S. intelligence communities agreed
that Teheran suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003
amid massive Western pressure to open Iran's nuclear facilities.
But Barak said Israel determined that Iran soon renewed
the weapons program. The two countries plan to conduct
a strategic dialogue in January 2008.
"It seems Iran in 2003 halted for a certain period of time
its military nuclear program, but as far as we know it has
probably since renewed it," Barak said.
Barak said he held talks on Iran in October and November 2007
with senior administration officials. He acknowledged
disagreements with his American hosts.
"There are various assessments of Iran's nuclear progress,"
Barak said. "It continues to be in the center of all our discussions,
and time will tell which appraisal is correct."